Forecasting tutorial "Basic Forecasting"

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Forecasting tutorial "Basic Forecasting"

Bill Poling
Hi. I am trying to follow this forecasting tutorial at: https://www.r-bloggers.com/basic-forecasting/

Using my own data, I cannot get past the first step, lots of laughs.

dat3 <- structure(c(5973156.76, 5159011.20,  6695766.64,  6365359.00,  6495218.53,  7226302.39,  6835272.70,  7383501.57,  6962748.19,  7623278.72,  7274994.33
                    ,7919421.80,  7360740.81,  7436693.35, 8545765.55,  7337269.76,  8180585.44,  8376635.05,  7758261.24, 10374641.22,  8000314.11,  9114958.90
                    ,9805149.15,  9336939.45, 10273849.10,  9159308.71, 10184703.33, 10251153.52
                    ,-52340.21,  -90911.29,  -90135.33, -147196.03, -112831.26,  -99443.31,  -72584.09, -161869.48, -117805.41,  -81102.39, -175379.25, -190596.12
                    ,-110838.08, -127953.99, -129414.01, -131570.11,  -28814.27,  -63066.40, -134587.17,  -27610.96, -169293.37, -144034.70, -193376.36, -135743.08
                    ,-151767.63, -156816.35, -113074.01, -160705.61
                    ,-700973.75,  -891171.15,  -805670.71,  -821222.02, -1078184.45,  -980080.81,  -786506.89, -1244278.50, -1392779.81, -1186436.41, -1108016.28
                    ,-1201663.88, -1163848.16, -1028830.60, -1507572.01, -1210422.01, -1529691.90, -1207461.55, -1615971.18,  -978028.10, -1354515.28, -1624270.48
                    , -1596204.33, -1836731.26, -1310376.81, -1337718.49, -1492220.98, -1421801.16)
                    ,.Dim = c(28L, 3L)
                    ,.Dimnames = list(NULL, c("TotalNetRev","TotalRevAdjusted" ,"TotalRevCancelled"))
                    ,.Tsp = c(2016, 2018, 12)
                   , class = c("mts", "ts", "matrix"))

Error in attributes(.Data) <- c(attributes(.Data), attrib) :
  invalid time series parameters specified

I think the error may be due to 28 months of data, complete 2016 & 2017 but only 4 months in 2018 and my Tsp is a value of 12? If so how would I adjust?

I have googled a few references for the error, but the solution is not clear to me.
https://stackoverflow.com/questions/32369737/error-invalid-time-series-parameters-specified-in-backtesting-r-script
http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/How-to-setup-the-tsp-attribute-of-a-dataset-td908269.html

Thanks for any advice.

WHP


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Re: Forecasting tutorial "Basic Forecasting"

David Carlson
The tutorial is from the mathewanalytics.com website, but this post is missing. Have you contacted the author at [hidden email]?

----------------------------------------
David L Carlson
Department of Anthropology
Texas A&M University
College Station, TX 77843-4352

-----Original Message-----
From: R-help <[hidden email]> On Behalf Of Bill Poling
Sent: Tuesday, May 15, 2018 1:09 PM
To: r-help ([hidden email]) <[hidden email]>
Subject: [R] Forecasting tutorial "Basic Forecasting"

Hi. I am trying to follow this forecasting tutorial at: https://www.r-bloggers.com/basic-forecasting/

Using my own data, I cannot get past the first step, lots of laughs.

dat3 <- structure(c(5973156.76, 5159011.20,  6695766.64,  6365359.00,  6495218.53,  7226302.39,  6835272.70,  7383501.57,  6962748.19,  7623278.72,  7274994.33
                    ,7919421.80,  7360740.81,  7436693.35, 8545765.55,  7337269.76,  8180585.44,  8376635.05,  7758261.24, 10374641.22,  8000314.11,  9114958.90
                    ,9805149.15,  9336939.45, 10273849.10,  9159308.71, 10184703.33, 10251153.52
                    ,-52340.21,  -90911.29,  -90135.33, -147196.03, -112831.26,  -99443.31,  -72584.09, -161869.48, -117805.41,  -81102.39, -175379.25, -190596.12
                    ,-110838.08, -127953.99, -129414.01, -131570.11,  -28814.27,  -63066.40, -134587.17,  -27610.96, -169293.37, -144034.70, -193376.36, -135743.08
                    ,-151767.63, -156816.35, -113074.01, -160705.61
                    ,-700973.75,  -891171.15,  -805670.71,  -821222.02, -1078184.45,  -980080.81,  -786506.89, -1244278.50, -1392779.81, -1186436.41, -1108016.28
                    ,-1201663.88, -1163848.16, -1028830.60, -1507572.01, -1210422.01, -1529691.90, -1207461.55, -1615971.18,  -978028.10, -1354515.28, -1624270.48
                    , -1596204.33, -1836731.26, -1310376.81, -1337718.49, -1492220.98, -1421801.16)
                    ,.Dim = c(28L, 3L)
                    ,.Dimnames = list(NULL, c("TotalNetRev","TotalRevAdjusted" ,"TotalRevCancelled"))
                    ,.Tsp = c(2016, 2018, 12)
                   , class = c("mts", "ts", "matrix"))

Error in attributes(.Data) <- c(attributes(.Data), attrib) :
  invalid time series parameters specified

I think the error may be due to 28 months of data, complete 2016 & 2017 but only 4 months in 2018 and my Tsp is a value of 12? If so how would I adjust?

I have googled a few references for the error, but the solution is not clear to me.
https://stackoverflow.com/questions/32369737/error-invalid-time-series-parameters-specified-in-backtesting-r-script
http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/How-to-setup-the-tsp-attribute-of-a-dataset-td908269.html

Thanks for any advice.

WHP


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PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
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Re: Forecasting tutorial "Basic Forecasting"

Huzefa Khalil
In reply to this post by Bill Poling
Instead of

Tsp = c(2016, 2018, 12)

try

Tsp = c(2016, 2018.25, 12)

Hence, you can specify the object as

structure(c(5973156.76, 5159011.2, 6695766.64, 6365359, 6495218.53,
7226302.39, 6835272.7, 7383501.57, 6962748.19, 7623278.72, 7274994.33,
7919421.8, 7360740.81, 7436693.35, 8545765.55, 7337269.76, 8180585.44,
8376635.05, 7758261.24, 10374641.22, 8000314.11, 9114958.9, 9805149.15,
9336939.45, 10273849.1, 9159308.71, 10184703.33, 10251153.52,
-52340.21, -90911.29, -90135.33, -147196.03, -112831.26, -99443.31,
-72584.09, -161869.48, -117805.41, -81102.39, -175379.25, -190596.12,
-110838.08, -127953.99, -129414.01, -131570.11, -28814.27, -63066.4,
-134587.17, -27610.96, -169293.37, -144034.7, -193376.36, -135743.08,
-151767.63, -156816.35, -113074.01, -160705.61, -700973.75, -891171.15,
-805670.71, -821222.02, -1078184.45, -980080.81, -786506.89,
-1244278.5, -1392779.81, -1186436.41, -1108016.28, -1201663.88,
-1163848.16, -1028830.6, -1507572.01, -1210422.01, -1529691.9,
-1207461.55, -1615971.18, -978028.1, -1354515.28, -1624270.48,
-1596204.33, -1836731.26, -1310376.81, -1337718.49, -1492220.98,
-1421801.16), .Dim = c(28L, 3L), .Dimnames = list(NULL, c("TotalNetRev",
"TotalRevAdjusted", "TotalRevCancelled")), .Tsp = c(2016, 2018.25,
12), class = c("mts", "ts", "matrix"))

You were correct that the error was because of 28 time-points. This is
the fix for it.

Huzefa

On Tue, May 15, 2018 at 2:08 PM, Bill Poling <[hidden email]> wrote:

> Hi. I am trying to follow this forecasting tutorial at: https://www.r-bloggers.com/basic-forecasting/
>
> Using my own data, I cannot get past the first step, lots of laughs.
>
> dat3 <- structure(c(5973156.76, 5159011.20,  6695766.64,  6365359.00,  6495218.53,  7226302.39,  6835272.70,  7383501.57,  6962748.19,  7623278.72,  7274994.33
>                     ,7919421.80,  7360740.81,  7436693.35, 8545765.55,  7337269.76,  8180585.44,  8376635.05,  7758261.24, 10374641.22,  8000314.11,  9114958.90
>                     ,9805149.15,  9336939.45, 10273849.10,  9159308.71, 10184703.33, 10251153.52
>                     ,-52340.21,  -90911.29,  -90135.33, -147196.03, -112831.26,  -99443.31,  -72584.09, -161869.48, -117805.41,  -81102.39, -175379.25, -190596.12
>                     ,-110838.08, -127953.99, -129414.01, -131570.11,  -28814.27,  -63066.40, -134587.17,  -27610.96, -169293.37, -144034.70, -193376.36, -135743.08
>                     ,-151767.63, -156816.35, -113074.01, -160705.61
>                     ,-700973.75,  -891171.15,  -805670.71,  -821222.02, -1078184.45,  -980080.81,  -786506.89, -1244278.50, -1392779.81, -1186436.41, -1108016.28
>                     ,-1201663.88, -1163848.16, -1028830.60, -1507572.01, -1210422.01, -1529691.90, -1207461.55, -1615971.18,  -978028.10, -1354515.28, -1624270.48
>                     , -1596204.33, -1836731.26, -1310376.81, -1337718.49, -1492220.98, -1421801.16)
>                     ,.Dim = c(28L, 3L)
>                     ,.Dimnames = list(NULL, c("TotalNetRev","TotalRevAdjusted" ,"TotalRevCancelled"))
>                     ,.Tsp = c(2016, 2018, 12)
>                    , class = c("mts", "ts", "matrix"))
>
> Error in attributes(.Data) <- c(attributes(.Data), attrib) :
>   invalid time series parameters specified
>
> I think the error may be due to 28 months of data, complete 2016 & 2017 but only 4 months in 2018 and my Tsp is a value of 12? If so how would I adjust?
>
> I have googled a few references for the error, but the solution is not clear to me.
> https://stackoverflow.com/questions/32369737/error-invalid-time-series-parameters-specified-in-backtesting-r-script
> http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/How-to-setup-the-tsp-attribute-of-a-dataset-td908269.html
>
> Thanks for any advice.
>
> WHP
>
>
> Confidentiality Notice This message is sent from Zelis. ...{{dropped:15}}
>
> ______________________________________________
> [hidden email] mailing list -- To UNSUBSCRIBE and more, see
> https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
> PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
> and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.

______________________________________________
[hidden email] mailing list -- To UNSUBSCRIBE and more, see
https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help
PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html
and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.
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Re: Forecasting tutorial "Basic Forecasting"

Bill Poling
Yep, thank you Huzefa, that’s got it.

WHP


From: Huzefa Khalil [mailto:[hidden email]]
Sent: Tuesday, May 15, 2018 2:42 PM
To: Bill Poling <[hidden email]>
Cc: r-help ([hidden email]) <[hidden email]>
Subject: Re: [R] Forecasting tutorial "Basic Forecasting"

Instead of

Tsp = c(2016, 2018, 12)

try

Tsp = c(2016, 2018.25, 12)

Hence, you can specify the object as

structure(c(5973156.76, 5159011.2, 6695766.64, 6365359, 6495218.53,
7226302.39, 6835272.7, 7383501.57, 6962748.19, 7623278.72, 7274994.33,
7919421.8, 7360740.81, 7436693.35, 8545765.55, 7337269.76, 8180585.44,
8376635.05, 7758261.24, 10374641.22, 8000314.11, 9114958.9, 9805149.15,
9336939.45, 10273849.1, 9159308.71, 10184703.33, 10251153.52,
-52340.21, -90911.29, -90135.33, -147196.03, -112831.26, -99443.31,
-72584.09, -161869.48, -117805.41, -81102.39, -175379.25, -190596.12,
-110838.08, -127953.99, -129414.01, -131570.11, -28814.27, -63066.4,
-134587.17, -27610.96, -169293.37, -144034.7, -193376.36, -135743.08,
-151767.63, -156816.35, -113074.01, -160705.61, -700973.75, -891171.15,
-805670.71, -821222.02, -1078184.45, -980080.81, -786506.89,
-1244278.5, -1392779.81, -1186436.41, -1108016.28, -1201663.88,
-1163848.16, -1028830.6, -1507572.01, -1210422.01, -1529691.9,
-1207461.55, -1615971.18, -978028.1, -1354515.28, -1624270.48,
-1596204.33, -1836731.26, -1310376.81, -1337718.49, -1492220.98,
-1421801.16), .Dim = c(28L, 3L), .Dimnames = list(NULL, c("TotalNetRev",
"TotalRevAdjusted", "TotalRevCancelled")), .Tsp = c(2016, 2018.25,
12), class = c("mts", "ts", "matrix"))

You were correct that the error was because of 28 time-points. This is
the fix for it.

Huzefa

On Tue, May 15, 2018 at 2:08 PM, Bill Poling <[hidden email]<mailto:[hidden email]>> wrote:

> Hi. I am trying to follow this forecasting tutorial at: https://www.r-bloggers.com/basic-forecasting/<https://www.r-bloggers.com/basic-forecasting/>
>
> Using my own data, I cannot get past the first step, lots of laughs.
>
> dat3 <- structure(c(5973156.76, 5159011.20, 6695766.64, 6365359.00, 6495218.53, 7226302.39, 6835272.70, 7383501.57, 6962748.19, 7623278.72, 7274994.33
> ,7919421.80, 7360740.81, 7436693.35, 8545765.55, 7337269.76, 8180585.44, 8376635.05, 7758261.24, 10374641.22, 8000314.11, 9114958.90
> ,9805149.15, 9336939.45, 10273849.10, 9159308.71, 10184703.33, 10251153.52
> ,-52340.21, -90911.29, -90135.33, -147196.03, -112831.26, -99443.31, -72584.09, -161869.48, -117805.41, -81102.39, -175379.25, -190596.12
> ,-110838.08, -127953.99, -129414.01, -131570.11, -28814.27, -63066.40, -134587.17, -27610.96, -169293.37, -144034.70, -193376.36, -135743.08
> ,-151767.63, -156816.35, -113074.01, -160705.61
> ,-700973.75, -891171.15, -805670.71, -821222.02, -1078184.45, -980080.81, -786506.89, -1244278.50, -1392779.81, -1186436.41, -1108016.28
> ,-1201663.88, -1163848.16, -1028830.60, -1507572.01, -1210422.01, -1529691.90, -1207461.55, -1615971.18, -978028.10, -1354515.28, -1624270.48
> , -1596204.33, -1836731.26, -1310376.81, -1337718.49, -1492220.98, -1421801.16)
> ,.Dim = c(28L, 3L)
> ,.Dimnames = list(NULL, c("TotalNetRev","TotalRevAdjusted" ,"TotalRevCancelled"))
> ,.Tsp = c(2016, 2018, 12)
> , class = c("mts", "ts", "matrix"))
>
> Error in attributes(.Data) <- c(attributes(.Data), attrib) :
> invalid time series parameters specified
>
> I think the error may be due to 28 months of data, complete 2016 & 2017 but only 4 months in 2018 and my Tsp is a value of 12? If so how would I adjust?
>
> I have googled a few references for the error, but the solution is not clear to me.
> https://stackoverflow.com/questions/32369737/error-invalid-time-series-parameters-specified-in-backtesting-r-script<https://stackoverflow.com/questions/32369737/error-invalid-time-series-parameters-specified-in-backtesting-r-script>
> http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/How-to-setup-the-tsp-attribute-of-a-dataset-td908269.html<http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/How-to-setup-the-tsp-attribute-of-a-dataset-td908269.html>
>
> Thanks for any advice.
>
> WHP
>
>
> Confidentiality Notice This message is sent from Zelis. ...{{dropped:15}}
>
> ______________________________________________
> [hidden email]<mailto:[hidden email]> mailing list -- To UNSUBSCRIBE and more, see
> https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help<https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help>
> PLEASE do read the posting guide http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html<http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html>
> and provide commented, minimal, self-contained, reproducible code.

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