Douglas -

As I understand Ronaldo's experiment, there are 4 plots, 8 subplots

within

each of those 4 plots, and 20 subsubplots within each of the 8 subplots.

Within each subsbubplot there is an average of 1.375 observational

units. We do not however need to know the distribution of observational

units per plot, for the discussion that follows.

A treatment Xvar, with 2 levels, has been applied at the plot level.

So 2 plots get the level 1 treatment, and 2 plots get the level 2

treatment.

A simple-minded (and insightful) way to start thinking about the

analysis

is to calculate averages for each of the 4 plots, and base the

analysis on

those averages.

There are 220 observational units (SD 5.217), 32 plot 1 units (SD

0.001965),

8 plot 2 units (SD 0.001587), together with an SD of 0.000741 at the

plot 1,

that contribute to variation at the plot 1 level. So the SD for an

inidividual

plot 1 unit is

sd1 = sqrt(5.217^2/220+.001965^2/32+.001587^2/8+.000741^2) = 0.35173

Thus the estimated SED for comparing the two levels of Xvar is

sqrt(s^2/2+s^2/2) = s = 0.35173

Not accidentally, this is exactly the SED that is given by both lme

and lmer.

Because the estimate is dominated by variation at the level of

observational

units this is also, essentially, the value given by lm.

If we knew that the variance component at the plot 1 level was indeed

very

small, giving the variance estimate 2df would be very conservative. The

problem is that we do not know this. We can either calculate sd1^2

directly

from the plot 1 means, or we can go through the more convoluted process

of estimating the various variance components, then dividing by the

relevant

numbers and adding. Either way, both the estimate of sd1 and the

estimate

of the component of variance at the plot 1 level is a 2df

calculation, with a

CI that relies on assuming that sd1^2 has something like a chi-squared

distribution. For moderately unbalanced designs the df calculation

has to

be fudged a bit.

The following function has defaults that reproduce the essential

features

or Ronaldo's analysis, though with a treatment effect that is noise.

For

simplicity, there are just two levels of variation:

"mlsim" <-

function(s1=0.00074, s2=5.22, n1=4, n2=220, nsamples=1000){

## Generate data with n1 plots, each with 220 subplots

## Data are such that estimated variance component at plot

## level is s1^2; at subplot level is s2^2

## A treatment with 2 levels is applied at the plot level;

## with n1/2 plots per treatment.

## n1 should be an even number

nu1 <- n1-2 ## df for treatment comparison

nu2 <- n1*(n2-1) ## df for estimate of s2

xp <- expand.grid(plot1=1:n1, plot2=1:n2)

eff1 <- rnorm(n1)

trt <- factor((xp$plot1+1) %% 2 + 1)

sd1 <- sqrt(s1^2+s2^2/n2)

eff1 <- residuals(lm(eff1~factor((2:(n1+1)) %% 2 + 1)))

eff1 <- eff1*sd1/sd(eff1)

eff2 <- rnorm(n1*n2)

eff2 <- resid(lm(eff2~factor(xp$plot1)))

eff2 <- eff2*s2/sqrt(sum(eff2^2)/nu2)

y <- eff1[xp$plot1] + eff2

df <- cbind(xp, trt=trt, y=y)

df$plot1 <- factor(df$plot1)

df$plot2 <- factor(df$plot2)

asum <- summary(aov(y~trt +Error(plot1), data=df))

bms2 <- asum[[1]][[1]][2,3]

ws2 <- asum[[2]][[1]][1,3]

eff1 <- eff1*sd1/sqrt(bms2/n2)

df$y <- eff1[xp$plot1] + eff2

if(nsamples>1){

df.lmer <- lmer(y~trt + (1|plot1), data=df)

print(summary(df.lmer))

df.mc <- mcmcsamp(df.lmer, n=1000)

par(mfrow=c(2,2), mar=c(3.1,3.1,2.1,1.1), mgp=c(2,.5,0))

on.exit(par(oldpar))

qqplot(qchisq(ppoints(1000),nu2)*s2^2/nu2, exp(df.mc[,3]))

mtext(side=3,line=0.25, paste("s2 =", s2, " (nu2=", nu2, ")",

sep=""))

abline(0,1,col=2)

qqplot(qchisq(ppoints(1000), nu1)*sd1^2/nu1,

exp(df.mc[,3])/n2+exp(df.mc[,4]))

abline(0,1,col=2)

mtext(side=3,line=1.25, paste("s1=",s1, "; Var of gp means=",

paste(round(sd1^2,2)), "; df=", nu1, sep=""))

mtext(side=3,line=.25, paste("(",signif(s1^2, 4), " (from s1); ",

signif(s2^2/n2,4)," ((from s2)", ")", sep=""))

invisible(df.mc)

}

else invisible(df)

}

Observe that the sample distribution of sd1^2 (the estimated variance

of the means at the plot 1 level) changes quite dramatically from one

run to the next, withe the direction of convexity in the qqplot changing

around the line y=x. The distribution is not chi-squared 2, but it

is not

consistently anything else either. The distribution is very likely,

I am

guessing, sensitive to the choice of prior. Possibly a choice where

log(sigma2) is locally uniform, where sigma2^2 is the variance at

the plot 2 level, would yield a distribution that is closer to chi-

squared 2.

The plots do however indicate that the chi-squared 2 distribution is in

the right ballpark, as judged by the results from multiple runs of

mcmcsamp().

With mlsim(s1=2.5, s2=5, n1=40, n2=4), the two components contribute

equally to sd1^2, and sd1^2 usually tracks quite closely to a

chi-squared distribution.

John Maindonald.

On 31 Dec 2005, at 5:51 AM, Douglas Bates wrote:

> On 12/29/05, John Maindonald <

[hidden email]> wrote:

>> Surely there is a correct denominator degrees of freedom if the

>> design

>> is balanced, as Ronaldo's design seems to be. Assuming that he has

>> specified the design correctly to lme() and that lme() is getting

>> the df

>> right, the difference is between 2 df and 878 df. If the t-statistic

>> for the

>> second level of Xvar had been 3.0 rather than 1.1, the difference

>> would be between a t-statistic equal to 0.095 and 1e-6. In a design

>> where there are 10 observations on each experimental unit, and all

>> comparisons are at the level of experimental units or above, df for

>> all comparisons will be inflated by a factor of at least 9.

>

> I don't want to be obtuse and argumentative but I still am not

> convinced that there is a correct denominator degrees of freedom for

> _this_ F statistic. I may be wrong about this but I think you are

> referring to an F statistic based on a denominator from a different

> error stratum, which is not what is being quoted. (Those are not

> given because they don't generalize to unbalanced designs.)

>

> This is why I would like to see someone undertake a simulation study

> to compare various approaches to inference for the fixed effects terms

> in a mixed model, using realistic (i.e. unbalanced) examples.

>

> It seems peculiar to me that the F statistics are being created from

> the ratios of mean squares for different terms to the _same_ mean

> square (actually a penalized sum of squares divided by the degrees of

> freedom) and the adjustment suggested to take into account the

> presence of the random effects is to change the denominator degrees of

> freedom. I think the rationale for this is an attempt to generalized

> another approach (the use of error strata) even though it is not being

> used here.

>

>> Rather than giving df that for the comparison(s) of interest may be

>> highly inflated, I'd prefer to give no degrees of freedom at all,

>> & to

>> encourage users to work out df for themselves if at all possible.

>> If they are not able to do this, then mcmcsamp() is a good

>> alternative,

>> and may be the way to go in any case. This has the further advantage

>> of allowing assessments in cases where the relevant distribution is

>> hard to get at. I'd think a warning in order that the df are upper

>> bounds,

>> and may be grossly inflated.

>

> As I said, I am willing to change this if it is shown to be grossly

> inaccurate but please show me.

>

>> Incidentally, does mcmcsamp() do its calculations pretty well

>> independently of the lmer results?

>

> mcmcsamp starts from the parameter estimates when creating the chain

> but that is the extent to which it depends on the lmer results.

>

>> John Maindonald.

>>

>> On 29 Dec 2005, at 10:00 PM,

[hidden email] wrote:

>>

>>> From: Douglas Bates <

[hidden email]>

>>> Date: 29 December 2005 5:59:07 AM

>>> To: "Ronaldo Reis-Jr." <

[hidden email]>

>>> Cc: R-Help <

[hidden email]>

>>> Subject: Re: [R] lme X lmer results

>>>

>>>

>>> On 12/26/05, Ronaldo Reis-Jr. <

[hidden email]> wrote:

>>>> Hi,

>>>>

>>>> this is not a new doubt, but is a doubt that I cant find a good

>>>> response.

>>>>

>>>> Look this output:

>>>>

>>>>> m.lme <- lme(Yvar~Xvar,random=~1|Plot1/Plot2/Plot3)

>>>>

>>>>> anova(m.lme)

>>>> numDF denDF F-value p-value

>>>> (Intercept) 1 860 210.2457 <.0001

>>>> Xvar 1 2 1.2352 0.3821

>>>>> summary(m.lme)

>>>> Linear mixed-effects model fit by REML

>>>> Data: NULL

>>>> AIC BIC logLik

>>>> 5416.59 5445.256 -2702.295

>>>>

>>>> Random effects:

>>>> Formula: ~1 | Plot1

>>>> (Intercept)

>>>> StdDev: 0.000745924

>>>>

>>>> Formula: ~1 | Plot2 %in% Plot1

>>>> (Intercept)

>>>> StdDev: 0.000158718

>>>>

>>>> Formula: ~1 | Plot3 %in% Plot2 %in% Plot1

>>>> (Intercept) Residual

>>>> StdDev: 0.000196583 5.216954

>>>>

>>>> Fixed effects: Yvar ~ Xvar

>>>> Value Std.Error DF t-value p-value

>>>> (Intercept) 2.3545454 0.2487091 860 9.467066 0.0000

>>>> XvarFactor2 0.3909091 0.3517278 2 1.111397 0.3821

>>>>

>>>> Number of Observations: 880

>>>> Number of Groups:

>>>> Plot1 Plot2 %in% Plot1

>>>> 4 8

>>>> Plot3 %in% Plot2 %in% Plot1

>>>> 20

>>>>

>>>> This is the correct result, de correct denDF for Xvar.

>>>>

>>>> I make this using lmer.

>>>>

>>>>> m.lmer <- lmer(Yvar~Xvar+(1|Plot1)+(1|Plot1:Plot2)+(1|Plot3))

>>>>> anova(m.lmer)

>>>> Analysis of Variance Table

>>>> Df Sum Sq Mean Sq Denom F value Pr(>F)

>>>> Xvar 1 33.62 33.62 878.00 1.2352 0.2667

>>>>> summary(m.lmer)

>>>> Linear mixed-effects model fit by REML

>>>> Formula: Yvar ~ Xvar + (1 | Plot1) + (1 | Plot1:Plot2) + (1 |

>>>> Plot3)

>>>> AIC BIC logLik MLdeviance REMLdeviance

>>>> 5416.59 5445.27 -2702.295 5402.698 5404.59

>>>> Random effects:

>>>> Groups Name Variance Std.Dev.

>>>> Plot3 (Intercept) 1.3608e-08 0.00011665

>>>> Plot1:Plot2 (Intercept) 1.3608e-08 0.00011665

>>>> Plot1 (Intercept) 1.3608e-08 0.00011665

>>>> Residual 2.7217e+01 5.21695390

>>>> # of obs: 880, groups: Plot3, 20; Plot1:Plot2, 8; Plot1, 4

>>>>

>>>> Fixed effects:

>>>> Estimate Std. Error DF t value Pr(>|t|)

>>>> (Intercept) 2.35455 0.24871 878 9.4671 <2e-16 ***

>>>> XvarFactor2 0.39091 0.35173 878 1.1114 0.2667

>>>> ---

>>>> Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

>>>>

>>>> Look the wrong P value, I know that it is wrong because the DF

>>>> used. But, In

>>>> this case, the result is not correct. Dont have any difference of

>>>> the result

>>>> using random effects with lmer and using a simple analyses with lm.

>>>

>>> You are assuming that there is a correct value of the denominator

>>> degrees of freedom. I don't believe there is. The statistic

>>> that is

>>> quoted there doesn't have exactly an F distribution so there is no

>>> correct degrees of freedom.

>>>

>>> One thing you can do with lmer is to form a Markov Chain Monte Carlo

>>> sample from the posterior distribution of the parameters so you can

>>> check to see whether the value of zero is in the middle of the

>>> distribution of XvarFactor2 or not.

>>>

>>> It would be possible for me to recreate in lmer the rules used in

>>> lme

>>> for calculating denominator degrees of freedom associated with terms

>>> of the random effects. However, the class of models fit by lmer is

>>> larger than the class of models fit by lme (at least as far as the

>>> structure of the random-effects terms goes). In particular lmer

>>> allows for random effects associated with crossed or partially

>>> crossed

>>> grouping factors and the rules for denominator degrees of freedom in

>>> lme only apply cleanly to nested grouping factors. I would

>>> prefer to

>>> have a set of rules that would apply to the general case.

>>>

>>> Right now I would prefer to devote my time to other aspects of

>>> lmer -

>>> in particular I am still working on code for generalized linear

>>> mixed

>>> models using a supernodal Cholesky factorization. I am willing

>>> to put

>>> this aside and code up the rules for denominator degrees of freedom

>>> with nested grouping factors BUT first I want someone to show me an

>>> example demonstrating that there really is a problem. The example

>>> must show that the p-value calculated in the anova table or the

>>> parameter estimates table for lmer is seriously wrong compared to an

>>> empirical p-value - obtained from simulation under the null

>>> distribution or through MCMC sampling or something like that.

>>> Saying

>>> that "Software XYZ says there are n denominator d.f. and lmer says

>>> there are m" does NOT count as an example. I will readily concede

>>> that the denominator degrees of freedom reported by lmer are

>>> wrong but

>>> so are the degrees of freedom reported by Software XYZ because there

>>> is no right answer (in general - in a few simple balanced designs

>>> there may be a right answer).

>>>

>>>>

>>>>> m.lm <- lm(Yvar~Xvar)

>>>>>

>>>>> anova(m.lm)

>>>> Analysis of Variance Table

>>>>

>>>> Response: Nadultos

>>>> Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

>>>> Xvar 1 33.6 33.6 1.2352 0.2667

>>>> Residuals 878 23896.2 27.2

>>>>>

>>>>> summary(m.lm)

>>>>

>>>> Call:

>>>> lm(formula = Yvar ~ Xvar)

>>>>

>>>> Residuals:

>>>> Min 1Q Median 3Q Max

>>>> -2.7455 -2.3545 -1.7455 0.2545 69.6455

>>>>

>>>> Coefficients:

>>>> Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)

>>>> (Intercept) 2.3545 0.2487 9.467 <2e-16 ***

>>>> XvarFactor2 0.3909 0.3517 1.111 0.267

>>>> ---

>>>> Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

>>>>

>>>> Residual standard error: 5.217 on 878 degrees of freedom

>>>> Multiple R-Squared: 0.001405, Adjusted R-squared: 0.0002675

>>>> F-statistic: 1.235 on 1 and 878 DF, p-value: 0.2667

>>>>

>>>> I read the rnews about this use of the full DF in lmer, but I dont

>>>> undestand

>>>> this use with a gaussian error, I undestand this with glm data.

>>>>

>>>> I need more explanations, please.

>>>>

>>>> Thanks

>>>> Ronaldo

>>

>> ______________________________________________

>>

[hidden email] mailing list

>>

https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-help>> PLEASE do read the posting guide!

http://www.R-project.org/posting-
>> guide.html

>>

______________________________________________

[hidden email] mailing list

https://stat.ethz.ch/mailman/listinfo/r-helpPLEASE do read the posting guide!

http://www.R-project.org/posting-guide.html