Forward Curve Fitting

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Forward Curve Fitting

Oleg Mubarakshin
Hi Team,

Maybe someone can help me with the below.

What would be the best way to fit the BTC/USD forward curve?

It is quite agile (including its shape).

Please see attached example: Deribit's market data, including futures and options (from put-call parity), 24 cutoffs, one per hour, the most recent (blue line) goes with bid/ask-s. Mobility of the curve in this sample is not so bad TBH (can be much worse).

The Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models didn't work for me (maybe I didn't use them properly?).

I'm ready to give up and fit it with splines but maybe somebody knows a better way?

BTC-USD fwd curve 20210406 001.jpeg

--
Kind regards,
Oleg


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