Using R for modelling Australian Senate Election in NSW?

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Using R for modelling Australian Senate Election in NSW?


I am setting up an Australian Science and Technology party with Human
Health and Longevity as it's defining, first platform plank:

and intend to run Senate candidates at the next Federal Election (due
late 2016).  Senators are elected from each State and Territory using a
Proportional Representation (PR) method but it is complex and odd things
happen with direction of preferences when the smallest groups or
individuals are progressively eliminated from the count when producing
the final quotas.  I have a little experience with R but it seems like
it might be useful for modelling this situation?  A quota for a
half-senate election (six senators to be elected in each state) is one
seventh of the total number of votes + one vote.

My current thoughts are these:

- each Senate vote corresponds to a vector with say 80 numbers on it
(corresponding to 80 candidates - some grouped into parties, some as

- the order of the numbers from 1-80 could be random on the ballot but
in practice, there will be many identical ballots corresponding to the
voting preference recommendations of the major parties

- the groups of votes with enough first preference votes (number "1"s)
that constitute a "quota" will have their first candidate declared
elected and their quota subtracted from the party's total votes - this
process continues until there are no full quotas left to allocate

- the next stage is the elimination process - the party / individual
with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and their second
preference votes (their number "2"s) will be added to the count
corresponding to the that individual - this process continues until
another person has enough votes for a quota

- the previous exercise is repeated until all quotas have been allocated

- I can generate the approximate simulation vectors from previous data
OK but am not sure how how to proceed with the "elimination" process
coding etc.

Suggestions (so I don't waste too much time re-inventing wheels etc)
would be much appreciated!



Philip Rhoades

GPO Box 3411
Sydney NSW 2001
E-mail:  [hidden email]

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